Impacts of Renewable Energy Strategy on Electricity System and Carbon Emmissions in Hunan Province of China

Abstract

This study explores the impacts of renewable energy strategies on the electricity system and carbon emissions in Hunan province, China, with a focus on the challenges posed by limited renewable energy resources and the carbon peak target. Using the Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, three scenarios (BAS, MED, and HIG) were analyzed to assess the impacts between 2022 and 2035. The analysis aimed to examine trends in electricity demand, power generation adjustments, emission reduction potentials, and policy frameworks. The results indicate that under the HIG scenario, coal-fired power generation would decrease by approximately 20%, leading to an estimated reduction of 50 million tons of CO2 emissions. The study suggests that strategies such as industrial restructuring, widespread adoption of energy storage technologies, and smart grid implementation could help Hunan achieve its carbon peak target 3 to 5 years earlier than under the BAS scenario. Key policy recommendations include: a) accelerating the phase-out of coal-fired power; b) supporting the development of natural gas power; c) promoting energy storage and distributed energy systems; and d) enhancing carbon market mechanisms. These strategies aim to optimize the electricity mix, enhance renewable energy integration, and improve system flexibility. Overall, this interdisciplinary study offers valuable insights into operational research, technological innovation, and the sustainable energy transition, contributing to the realization of carbon reduction goals in regions with limited renewable energy resources.

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